Has anyone seen this video???

Hello my Conservative Friends:

Simply post today - No BS - I am sure most of you have seen it, but I want to make sure because as of yesterday, I have not seen it...  And EVERYONE should absolutely make sure they see this...

If you have not seen this movie, watch it.  Watch the whole thing and then watch it again.

Then have your family watch it.  Then do it all over again until you and everyone you know has seen and understands it...

https://vimeo.com/52009124

If this does not make you aware of what is going on today in this country, nothing will!!!

Pass this along for the sake of what is left of our country...

GOP Mike

GOP Mike's Election Post Mortem - Assessing the Carnage...

To my Conservative Friends:

I sat in front of my computer last night and started this post.  I clicked on "New Post", started, stopped and started again... 

I froze after just 3 words and stared into a blank wall saying to myself, "What could I possibly write?"  What do I say to everyone who, like me, had such great hopes for this election.  What do I say to the people who felt, like me, that we needed Mitt Romney to win because we sincerely felt our country, our businesses, our families so desperately needed him to win.

I realized that this article is going to be the hardest article I have ever written just minutes after 57 million people that voted for a chance at a real recovery were just kicked right in the gut.  We have been struggling for so long watching this President demonize us, divide us and push his socialist policies that we knew were like a cancer to a healthy economy...

I was stunned.  I was sad, and most importantly I was scared of what this means to our country and leaves us lovers of freedom and liberty asking "Where do we go from here??"  There was never any thought of a contingency plan.  There was no thinking that this President, that has so utterly failed in every objective metric, could possibly be reelected...

I was wrong.  I was too optimistic.  I gave the country too much credit for understanding what was at stake.  I falsely believed that a majority of this country understands that freedom was on the ballot yesterday.  Freedom is what was offered by Mitt Romney.  Obama and his ilk understood more than all of us that in the choice between freedom and stuff, a majority of the sheeple will choose the stuff every time. 

As Rush said today, it is hard to run against Santa Claus.  Especially if you have to be Santa Claus.  Ya see the democrats appeal to the lowest common denominator of the masses.  They know its easier to just be Santa Claus and get votes than to make the hard argument that because Santa is broke, we may have to scale back Christmas a bit this year!  It will be tough in the short-term, but it is the best thing for us in the long-term.

Us conservatives feel that as long as we explain the economic realities to the people that they will understand that we can not mortgage our children's future.  We can not continue with trillion+ deficits and continue to exist.  We can not put our heads in the sand and ignore the reality that if we don't fix this now, it will be fixed for us.  And that will be very ugly!! 

We make that argument and feel that most people will get it and vote for freedom.  They then go behind the curtain and pull the shiny lever labeled "FREE STUFF FROM SANTA OBAMA"..

Obama and his crew know that by dividing and demonizing the successful people in our country it creates a resentment among the low and middle income people so they feel "Yeah - Screw those rich assholes - MAKE 'EM PAY!!!"

Us conservatives know that is a bankrupt argument.  That if you tax the pants out of every high earner, you can run the government for 2 months at best.  We also know that these people are the job creators, the investors, the engine of a growing economy and we NEED them to be successful...  Us conservatives know that we should never demonize success, but rather celebrate it and emulate it so you can be a success too. 

We make that argument day after day and feel most people get it and will vote celebrate rather than demonize.  They then go behind that curtain and are so filled with jealousy and resentment, they grab that demonization lever and pull down with a sick vengeance and feeling of gratification that they got their pound of flesh.

So that is why we are sitting here today looking at another 4 years of a President Obama.  That is why we are sad today that will will not see how a President Romney will go about healing this economy and getting us a real recovery.  I believe Mitt Romney had a chance to be a great President.  He is a good and decent man with many skills he would have brought to bear to lead this country from the depths of despair we find ourselves today.

Instead we will get more division, more spending and more deficits.  The stock market reacted by tanking 330 today.  How will employers react to Obamacare being fully implemented now??  How will the real estate market react to an economy with high unemployment and a falling dollar.  I can't imagine this will be easy times ahead for our country.

I can only hope that we can make it through so we have the opportunity to restore our freedom, regain our liberties and make the argument that our case is the best subscription for our country.  We must make that case. 

We must not cower to those who say we have to compromise our principles and sell out to those who go along to get along.  Our case is the case made by our founders.  Our case is the one outlined in the constitution.  Our case will prevail.  It must prevail if we are to remain the greatest country ever created.  In time, it will.

Just my thoughts...

GOP Mike

Polling Update - 1 Day to go and GOP Mike's Final Prediction!

To my Conservative Friends:

Serenity now!!!!

I know all of you are nervous.  I know all of you are anxious.  I was that way for all the elections that I have been closely following as an armchair political pundit from the 2000, 2002, 2004 (especially), 2006, 2008 and the mid-terms in 2010.

And this 2012 election is, in my view, the most vitally important election in my lifetime.  And yet, I am the most calm and reserved about this election than I have ever been before a big election day.

The reason??  As I told my wife yesterday, everything in my bones tells me this President is the most corrosive, dangerous President that has ever occupied the oval office in the history of our republic.  And everything tells me that his campaign is so bankrupt and corrupt that he can not win. 

Romney's campaign is about what is right about this country and what has made us great (self responsibility, exceptionalism, limited government).  And Obama's campaign is everything that is wrong about this country, specifically class warfare, jealousy, resentment, handouts and more of the same policies that have this country on the brink of collapse.

But Mike - What do the polls say??  Ok, Ok...  With one day to go, here are the numbers for the only reliable sources I watch closely which are the daily tracking polls:

As of Today - November 5, 2012 (1 day till election):

Rasmussen: Romney 49%/Obama 48%

Gallup: Romney 51%/Obama 46%

IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%/Romney 44%

Battleground: Romney 48%/Obama 48%

 

Averages:  Romney 48.0%/Obama 46.8%  -  Romney leads by 1.2%

 

Just as a point of reference, with one day to go in 2008, Obama lead McCain by 6.4% and was at 51% average in the polls.  Ohh how times have changed!!!

 

As I have said many times, if an incumbent is averaging below 50%, that is not a good sign as app. 70% of the undecideds will go for the challenger.  So, with that assumption, Romney will carry the popular vote by a 3.4 points or 51.7% to 48.3%.  That would equate to a popular vote victory of app. 4.4 million votes.

 

But Mike, all the 'in the bag for Obama" media is claiming that Obama is still up in the swing states and could still win the election while losing the popular vote.  I say to those "journalists" that you are really deluding yourself.  Once the poplar vote margin exceeds a 1.5 to 2 point spread, it is virtually statistically impossible for "thread the needle" and win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by more than a point or two. 

 

In my view, based on my objective analysis of the numbers, Romney will carry a large majority of the undecideds and win by more than 3 points and the electoral college will all fall into place.  Romney will carry all of the McCain states plus the following states that we will switch blue to red - FLA, NC, VA, either OH or PA, WI, IA, CO and NH for a total of 295-297 electoral votes.

 

And it could be better!!!  I see Romney's upside to be a 6-7 point poplar vote (53-47) and an electoral total of 315 to Obama's 223.  A real ass-kicking!!!.  This would be an absolute repudiation of everything Barry stands for and a very welcome and inspiring historic event that would have the main stream media in an absolute tailspin trying to figure out what the hell just happened!!!

 

Now, I have further statistical evidence to support this analysis.  In 2008, Dems outnumbered Republicans by a 7 point margin due to the enthusiasm for Obama and the dim-bulbs.  He also won the independents by double digits.  This translated into a landslide of 7.4% (53.7% to 46.3%) and an electoral total of 365 electoral votes for Nobama.

 

Almost every single poll out there has Romney well ahead of the independents (some by 20 points or more!!!).  And does anyone think the dems will outnumber republicans this time around???

 

So, let's just assume that the turnout of Republicans and Dems are equal this time around (even though I think there will be a Rep+3-5 based on enthusiasm) and each man carries 95% of their party vote (although I think Romney will carry more dems than Obama carries Rep's) and Romney carries the Independents by a small margin of say 8%.  So, this admittedly conservative approach translates into this:

 

 

 

So even this analysis shows Romney will win comfortably.  If we are to assume, Romney carries more dems than Obama carries Republicans and Romney carries app 12% of the indies, then you can see why I think it will be a larger margin of victory for Romney.  That would translate into a 6% (7.8 million votes) margin for Romney.

 

So bottom line, I don't buy the polls.  Their methodology is flawed and skewed towards showing the Messiah's polling as better than it actually is. 

 

Just today, CNN came out with a poll that showed the 2 men tied at 48%.  On it's surface, all the casual observers (and the media) say "yeah, makes sense, I have heard on CNN the race is dead even".  And then move along with their day plunging their face back into their IPads and smartphones to download the latest brain-numbing app. 

 

The problem with this poll, they have a dem+11 breakout for turnout!!!  Does ANYONE with a half of brain believe their will be 11% more enthusiasm for Obama voters than Romney voters tomorrow??  Only if you are the most partisan political lib-hack this side of the Mississippi!!! 

 

The other problem with this poll for CNN is that is showed Romney winning independents by 22%!!!  So ya see, to get the desired outcome they desired, a tie, they had to skew the turnout assumption to show a tie for their guy...

 

So, in conclusion, I have analyzed this race from an analytical, poll/number crunching perspective.  I have analyzed it from an issue and economic bent and I have analyzed it from an anecdotal method by talking to liberals, business owners, friends and families to get a sense of what is going to happen tomorrow.  But most of all, I follow my gut.  And my gut tells me that this President should lose.  This President deserves to lose.  This President MUST lose tomorrow so we can start to heal this economy, heal the division that the President has created by pitting class vs. class, group vs. group, Americans vs. Americans.

 

Mitt Romney is not the perfect candidate.  He will not heal the planet nor part the oceans.  He's a practical, problem solver who loves this country and is supremely qualified to get the economy working again.

 

He will not divide us, he will not promise one group goodies from another group.  He will be the President of ALL Americans and restore our faith in this great country.

 

So, hopefully, at around 10:55pm tomorrow night, I will listen to Bret Baier utter the words, "Fox News can now project that Mitt Romney has been elected the 45th President of the United States of America."

 

Trust me, we all need to hear that!!!

 

Just my thoughts...

 

GOP Mike

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

The Last Debate and those Clueless Undecideds!!

Pathetic Undecided Fence-Sitters!

To my Conservative Friends:

The 3rd debate was pretty boring as it only had a few memorable moments but Romney more than held his own and had a few good shots.  The debate will not move the needle at all as that was set after the first debate which was a Romney knockout. 

The Governor will probably go into election day with a slight lead (1-3 points) and he will improve on that in the actual election to the 5 point win I have predicted all along...

I, for one will be thankful these debates are over!!! I have had it with the pandering to the ohhh, soo wishy washey John and Jane Undecided voter with their uniformed comments and their dials they turn when they hear some get-along crap that sounds so nice-e-nice!!!

Typical Undecided Voter

I mean c'mon people if you are undecided at this point you have your head up your ass...

These two candidates are diametrically opposed on just about every issue there is. So how can any person who is remotely paying attention at all be undecided at this point? 

Either you are for the individual or the state. You are for limited government and self-responsibility or you are for the nanny state Ala western-Europe/Greece. You can't be both. You are either one or the other.

So for these people to claim they are undecided after watching Mao-bama for 4 years and watching the pro-business Romney are either just plain dumb or they just like the attention of the media and candidates who fawn over them like Manhattan libs treat their kids...

And the networks love to put these undecideds in a room to watch these debates and gauge their reactions.  The uber lib-hacks at CBS, Sarah O'Donnell and Charlie Rose reacted to a group of undecided Ohio voters who saw things a little differently than the hacks in the lame-stream media.  Check it out here, it is priceless:

They both looked like their puppy just died.  I mean these people are so blinded by their love for their Messiah than they can not comprehend why everyone just doesn't fall to their knees at the site of Obummer's idiot-prompter!!

Ya see the lib-hacks in the media aren't even trying to even appear to not be rooting for their chosen one this time around.  They are so invested emotionally and professionally in this guy that they never take a minute to ask the question - "Has this Presidency been an utter failure???".

They have given up all journalistic ethics and have basically said, "we don't give a rat's ass, we are libs and we don't care who knows it!".

Oh how great it will be two weeks from now watching them try to rationalize how their liberal world has just come crumbling down around them as America hits the eject button on the social experiment that was Barry Hussein Obama!!!

Just my thoughts...

GOP Mike



 

2 Weeks out - Polling Update & Predictions

To my Conservative Friends:

Unlike 4 years ago when I was the one bringing you the sorry news that we needed a miracle to avoid the election of the biggest empty suit that has ever sat in the oval office (see the 2008 article here), I come bearing gifts and good news!!!

I have been saying for over a year now that Romney will beat the Messiah by 5 points (52-47) and carry a comfortable electoral majority in the range of 279-308.  In fact, this is the way I see the electoral college breaking down on election night:

Why do I predict this??  Well, I am a numbers guy and I analyze polls as much as Dick Morris.  I analyse their methodology, their party breakdown and everything in between.  If you remember at this time 4 years ago, this is the way it looked from a polling perspective with 2 weeks to go in 2008 and today:

October 21, 2008 - 2 weeks till 2008 Election:

 

Obama 49.9%

McCain 42.9%

Obama's Lead = 7.0%

 

Today - October 22, 2012 - 2 weeks till 2012 Election

 

Romney 47.4%

Obama 46.6%

Romney's Lead  .7%

 

Oh how times have changed!!!  The polls today are more precise, more detailed and the polling companies have really got this thing down to a science.  The two main polls that I have followed in the past and I continue to trust the most are the daily tracking polls - Rasmussen and Gallup.

 

As I have said numerous times in the past, polling companies that do daily tracking are more accurate and are better pollsters that the companies that do sporadic, one-off polls every week or so.

 

This is merely because if you do something everyday, you are going to be better at it than if you do it every few weeks.  So Rasmussen and Gallup are the ones to follow.  They have proven to be the most accurate and they are the ones to be trusted the most.  Case in point Rasmussen had it right on the money in 2008 predicting a 6 point Obama win (he won by 5.5) and Gallup had Obama winning by 10.  So Rasmussen was the most accurate (as they were in 2010) and Gallup had the winner as well...

 

As of today, here is how Rasmussen and Gallup see it shaking down:

 

As of October 22, 2012 (2 weeks till election):

 

Rasmussen - Romney leads by 2

Gallup - Romney leads by 7

 

So what has happened in the past 4 years that has really changed the game for this election.  It is a lot of factors, but the biggest ones are:

 

• Romney is a drastically better candidate than McCain
• Paul Ryan is a better, more experienced and smarter VP candidate than Sarah Palin.
• Obama has lost a ton of support.  I think he has lost most of his support from white men &  married women who decided to give him a "chance" with the mindset of "Hope and Change" last time but have smartened up this time.
• Let's face it, Obama has been an utter failure for the most important issue - The economy!!
• 23 Million people still unemployed
• 47 million on food stamps (up from 32 million in 2008)
• Housing crisis still a mess
• Gas prices have doubled in the past 4 years
• Need I go on???
• Obama's foreign policy is unraveling before our eyes - the strategy of "get them to like us" has proven to be a failure...
• Romney has a plan and Obama is offering nothing more than stay the course as I drive us into the iceburg, hit reverse and back into it just in case I didn't rip the hull to shreds!
• The country was historic by electing the first black President and overlooked his lack of knowledge and experience and decided to give him a shot - not again (fool me once...)...

So, my prediction for the past year remains.  I believe Romney has a lead of between 2 and 7 points and has all the momentum going his way. 

 

The country has had it with Obama.  They have had it with the class-warfare, the lying, the apologizing, the blaming anyone other than himself.  And most importantly, they have had it with the dismal results...  Romney had it right when he said to the guy in the second debate - "We don't have to settle for this!!!"   And we wont!!!

 

Romney will win comfortably and we can finally get an adult in the white house so we can start getting this budget under control, stimulate the private sector and get on track for a real recovery!!!

 

I for one can't wait for it!!!

 

Just my thoughts...

 

GOP Mike

Ideology aside, why Romney Must Win!!

To all my Conservative Friends:

I know my liberal friends (I have a few...) will read this post as just Mike being Mike and rooting for his team.  However, I have taken a real objective look at what will happen to the country if Obama is reelected.

Here is how I see it from a business owner, a citizen, a husband, a father and an American, no BS whatsoever here!!!

If Barry gets Reelected:

There is no doubt that the business community has no love for this President.  Business leaders from across all industries have openly said that they have been hesitant to hire, reluctant to spend and have an overall fear of this administrations policies, statements and attitude towards the business community. 

 

Who could ever forget Barry's speech where he went off-prompter and we saw a glimpse into his socialist mind about what he really thinks of business owners is this country.

 

 

Ok, all that aside, what will actually happen to health care, taxes, the real estate market and the overall economy is Barry is able to hood-wink 50% +1 of the country and cobble together 271 electoral votes to win reelection.

 

Overall, the economy will struggle mightily if Barry gets reelected.  Here is just a list of things that will happen if the unthinkable happens:

 

Taxes

Barry will let taxes go up for everyone as he will let all the Bush tax rates expire and tax rates will go up for all tax brackets.  There will be no deal to raise only rates rates only on the rich since the GOP will control the house and increase their numbers on the Senate side and they will not allow it. 



So Barry will let the rates go up for everyone which is WHAT HIS GOAL WAS ALL ALONG!!

 

Effect on the Country - This will have a devastating impact on the economy as there will be much less disposable income for all Americans and businesses will have to trim down costs (payrolls) due to the sluggish consumer spending. 

 

Unemployment will rise to the 10% range again and this weak-ass recovery we have been seeing will come to a grinding halt as GDP will approach negative terrain. 

 

Barry won't care that this will shove the nation into recession as long as it enables him to implement his socialist agenda and transform the country into a western-european socialist haven.

Obamacare 

This stellar legislation will be fully implemented as there will be nobody to stop it.  The SCOTUS abdicated it's responsibility on the unconstitutionality of the onerous legalisation and the newly reelected Obama will view this as full steam ahead to shove this widely unpopular bill down the throats of businesses across the country.

Effect on the Country - No fair-minded person I have ever spoken to (liberals included) have ever believed that by adding millions of people to the health care rolls and offering free health care will reduce costs. 

So health care costs will go up and go up pretty dramatically.  Yes, more people will be covered and preexisting conditions will be protected and kiddies can loaf in mommy's basement and stay on their plans till 26, however, someone has to pay for all this and it ain't gonna be the insurance companies. 

So premiums will go up as businesses in droves will drop health care coverages for its employees dumping millions into Obamacare!!!  Socialism LIVES!!

Real Estate Market

The market feeds on the economy and jobs.  And based on the above, those are going to suffer drastically under Obama II - The Sequel (Finishing the "Job")... 

So the real estate market will not flourish but will tank again under a second term from Barry...

Effect on the Country - So the real estate market will suffer another downturn as prices will crash another 10-20% and buyers will find it easier finding a pro-business liberal than finding a bank to give them a mortgage. 

Banks will tighten the noose on their underwriting guidelines so they don't suffer any write downs on bad loans as they are gonna need all the cash they can hoard to weather the storm that is Barry's second term!!!

Oil/Gas Prices

Despite the line that Barry tried to pull in the last debate - His policies have been devastating to the oil industry as he has reduced drilling permits to pander to the environmental wacko crowd. 

He loves and truly believes in the farce of green energy even though we are probably 10-20 years away from using it in the real economy.  Barry will continue to hump the green crap to the detriment of the oil/gas industry.

Effect on the Country - Gas prices will go up to the $5-6/gallon range and this will devastate the middle/low income Americans.  The green energy farce will continue as Barry and his minions will keep humping this dead-end instead of letting the private sector do it.

Barry and his socialists will say they are "investing" in the future.  Hopefully there will be a future after he destroys what is left of this once great country!!!

Summary of a Obama Second Term

Higher taxes for all, increased health care costs for every family, the real estate market suffering another crash, gas prices at an all-time high, the national debt speeding to over $20 Trillion and an overall malaise and depression (economic and emotional)  gripping the country with no end or solution in sight.

It is not a pretty picture but is the most accurate assessment you will find.  It is not based on speculation or ideology.  But rather just a continuation of his current policies that we have seen implemented to some extent or another over the past 4 years.

It is not a future that any American wants.  But if we don't work hard the next 2 weeks to make sure Mitt Romney gets elected, it could very well be our future.

If Mitt Romney wins the Presidency

Since we don't have a track record for Romney, we can't really know what he will do unlike Obama where we just projected 4 more years of his current policies over the next 4 years.  However, we know from his campaign, the debates and his plan on his website that he will:

• Reduce taxes across the board = Economic stimulant
• Repeal Obamacare  = Economic stimulant
• Increase oil drilling = Economic stimulant
• Implement smart tax reform = Economic stimulant

Now the specifics are not there so it is impossible to know the exact effect these changes will have on our economy, but I would venture to say that a successful businessman that has a proven track record of turning struggling entities around with a plan that includes a bunch a pro-growth, pro-business strategies is virtually assured to have a better impact on our economy than a liberal re-distributionist that has no record of success and 4 years of documented failure...

One of my favorite bumper sticker remains - In 2008 the country proved we weren't racists, in 2012, we have to prove we are not idiots!

Vote smart in 15 days my friends!!

Just my thoughts...

GOP Mike