Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Election Update - 2 weeks to go....

To my Conservative Friends:

It’s two weeks to go and the polls are looking as dismal as the economy….. It is my unhappy duty to inform you that things ain’t lookin’ so good right now!!!! TheRealClearPolitics.com avg. has the Messiah up 7.6 points up as of this morning….. Just 2 days ago it was down to 4.8 and shrinking….. So, what has happened in the past 48 hrs.???????

I have a theory why this is happening and it comes in 3 parts:

1. The media started freakin’ out when the polls started to shrink and I, and others have noticed a huge effort not only to spin any news for Nobama but to already start writing about “the demise of the McCain campaign” and he “should campaign the last 2 weeks respectfully knowing he’s going to lose like Mondale did in ‘84”…. They are trying to tamp down any enthusiasm for McCain and demoralize Republicans so they said “who cares”… The media is not going to allow Nobama to lose without an all-out effort on their part to rig this thing for their boy and give him and his running mate Joe Plugs each and every benefit of the doubt…. To not made a big story of Plugs’ comments’ that “Mark my words, we will have a crisis to test this guy within the 1st 6-months!!!!” was the most obvious bias there could be… Imagine Gov. Palin saying something like that!! They would have been all over that like a cheap suit!!! This stuff said by Biden was the same thing he and Hillary, her Thighness, Clinton said in the primaries that this clown is nowhere near ready to be President!!!!

– BTW - I used to have no problem watching the Clinton News Network (cnn) or MSDNC (msnbc) to keep tabs on the enemy’s argument and to see how deranged they have become, but the last week has become unbearable to the 10th degree….. Could you imagine if Fox had a guy as deranged and hateful as Keith OverBite or if Fox had a panel of 5 people and not one liberal voice???? Why do we always feel the need to be fair when the other side is not???? We have to get tougher!!!! How many times do we need to be slapped in the face before we take a shovel to the back of their heads????

2. The polls not tightening is also partly because of the massive spending difference. Nobama has raised $150 million in September alone and over $600 million in total…. McCain has abided by his pledge (Barry reneged – never called on it by the media btw….)to accept federal funds and is limited to $84 million for his entire campaign!!! So with this massive dis-advantage, McCain is being outspent more than 6 to 1 and Nobama has flooded the airwaves with his infomercials of how “cool” and “hip” he is and how McCain is Bush, Bush is McCain blah blah blah…… and the economy is in the tank and even though we did it, blame them – (pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!!!!!!)

– Isn’t it amazing the libs think they are so intelligent and cool with their Lattes, rimmed glasses, goatees and copy of the NY Slimes while they think all us Republicans are dumb-ass rednecks at Nascar events…

3. The libs see a potential for a consolidation of power they have not had since the 30’s…. If the Messiah can win and they pick up 30 seats in the house run by Nancy “Stretch” Pelosi and pickup of 9 seats in the Senate headed by Harry “the Body” Reid, they will have a filibuster-proof congress that will pass anything it wants with no Republican check whatsoever…. This excites them in a way they have not been since FDR and the New Deal. I don’t want t depress you guys even more than I already have, but if this happens, the ramifications on the country would be dramatic(basically grab your ankles and kiss your _SS goodbye!!!). This, I believe has energized the left more than normal and has made them more apt to be polled because of their enthusiasm…. The Republicans are less enthused about John McCain and it is showing in the polls….. It may not translate to election day, but right now, the polling is reflecting this gap of enthusiasm (or hate-filled rage to be accurate).


So, is there a plan to avert disaster????? I would say yes, but it is a long shot….. First McCain has to get the National avg. down under 5 before election day. If that does not happen, it does not matter what strategy he implores, it won’t be enough….

The strategy for the election is this….. McCain must win all the Bush states (less Iowa and New Mexico – he gave up on them long ago – why, I don’t know….). This would give him 274 electoral votes and squeak by, however, he is slightly behind in 6 of these states (in order of safest to most in danger of losing IMO):

1. Florida (down 2pts)- McCain should carry it with the senior and military vote and a good portion of the Jewish vote….
2. Ohio (down 3pts) – McCain should carry it with a lot of Joe the Plumber types and social conservatives….
3. Missouri (down 2.7 pts) – McCain should pull out this quasi-southern state with gun owners and social conservatives…
4. Nevada (down 2.3pts) – McCain should carry his neighbor state based on big retired military population…
5. Colorado (down 5.4 pts) – Will be very tough to carry – Weird state – Ralph Nader got 5% of the vote in ’04. Dems had convention there – spent a lot of time and $$$ - Obama knows he can win the Presidency flipping this state blue. A lot of “Progressives” there now…. Progressives???? Why don’t they just call themselves what they are – Liberal Pinko Commies!!!!!
6. Virginia (Down 8pts) – Toughest pill to swallow here – State has become more Northeast in recent years with Dem Gov. Kaine a big Barry supporter and a large and growing black population (20% of the state – National avg. is 12.6%)…. Just a quick question - Recent polls have Nobama getting 98% of the black vote – why is this not called racist????? Your telling me only 2 out of 100 blacks have an independent thought in their head????? C’mon – the Dems have exploited them for years now!!!!
– Democratic motto – “Keep ‘em poor, keep ‘em needy, get their votes…… Start all over again!!!!”


Bottom Line – McCain has to run the table (the equivalent of drawing to an inside straight for you poker players) on these 6 states to get to 274. If he loses any one of them, he loses the Presidency….. Nobama has really targeted the last 2 – Colorado and Virginia and Barry’s campaign has basically said they guarantee wins in both…

However, the McCain campaign has a contingency strategy….. They have been spending time and dollars in Pennsylvania – I believe because this is a real blue-collar, gun-owning state that they think they can switch Red….. Miss Cankles ripped Barry a new one here in the primaries by 9 pts. If they are able to turn Pennsylvania red, then they could lose Colorado and Virginia and still win with 273….. As of this morning, they were 10 pts down in the keystone state (Kerry beat Bush by 4 in 2004), but with a big push at the end, they could flip it…. And with Rep. Murtha (a big Obama supporter) calling the western part of his state racists and rednecks, it has given McCain a second chance there….
(go to www.270towin.com to play with the interactive map and see what I am talking about).

So it comes down to these 7 states – Nothing else matters…. McCain need the six Bush states above or to flip PA red if he loses VA or CO. That’s why you will see all the candidates in these states for the last 2 weeks…..

It’s a long shot now (I would say a 20-25% chance) and nobody in the media thinks it’s possible….. I think we can still do it and it will be all the more satisfying if we do…..

Regards,
GOP Mike

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