Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Poll Update - 6 Days to go...

To my Conservative Friends:

HANG ONTO YOUR BUTTS!!!!!! It’s getting CLOSER!!!!!

Ok, here are the facts as of now – with 6 days to go….. I will spare you any literary prose for this update….

If you look at all the polls and exclude all the polls that are “one shot polls” meaning that they are not tracking polls that conduct interviews every day. They are just isolated polls that do not have rolling or tracking avgs.

The tracking polls, by no surprise, tend to be the most stable and predictable of all the polls… These “one-shot” polls which have Barry ahead 10, 12 or even 13 pts. (who the hell is Pew Research???), I don’t buy them for a minute. And I tell you that neither do my Dem friends (yes, I have a few, sorry…. I am converting them as we speak).

The tracking polls show a much more stable and closer race, while still showing Barry ahead, but to lesser, less erratic degree…. I see it this way: Like anything in life, if you do something every day, you will do a better job than somebody who does it once in a while…. If a polling company conducts polls everyday for months on end, it’s natural to say they will get better at it each day, refine their assumptions and percentages and, in the end, be a better predictor of the results…..

So, with that being said, here is what the everyday tracking polls say today:

Rasmussen – Obama 50/McCain 47
Zogby – Obama 49/McCain 45
Gallup – Obama 49/McCain 47
IBD – Obama 48/McCain 44
Battleground – Obama 49/McCain 46

Average of all Tracking polls - Obama 49.0/McCain 45.8 or an Obama lead of 3.2pts….

This is I believe, is the lead that the Messiah has with a week to go and this is the hurdle we must climb by election day…. I think McCain needs to reduce that 3.2 to 2 pts to get this done…. I think if he gets this avg. down to 2 pts, the momentum will be ours and it could be enough to carry the day in the swing states….

One more thing that I think could really help the situation, if there is one poll that comes out between now and election day, just one poll, any poll that shows McCain ahead (even by a point), I think it would be a tremendous psychological blow to Barry and his supporters and energize our base to really work to get our vote out…..

The thing that is interesting in analyzing all the numbers is that in all the Democrat primaries, the last poll before each of the individual primaries, the percentage that Barry received in the last poll was the actual amount he received in the vote…. Meaning, If Barry was not polling above 50% in any of the polls, he did not win the vote… All the undecided’s went to Her Thighness Hillary and I think McCain, likewise, will get the majority of the undecided’s…

So, I find it interesting that Barry is not over 50% in the tracking poll analysis above…. I think that if people are for Barry they are saying it, if they are saying they are undecided, mark my words, they’re probably not voting for him now….. This is what I think the pundits are missing in the poll data analysis…. Is it enough to win, not yet, but it’s much closer than the media is reporting – surprise!!!!

So, like I said, just the facts….

GOP Mike