To my conservative friends:
Well, my friends, we have come a long way and it’s almost over except for the voting…… I will tell you that, as someone who analyzes this stuff more than I would like to admit, that , if this election is based on the polls, I would have to say we are doomed….
Anyway I can spin the numbers would not be accepting reality that the only way we are pulling this thing out is: a- if the polls are dead-ass wrong , or: b- people are lying to the pollsters or c-the methodology the pollsters are using is flawed… An update on the tracking polls from last week is as follows:
Polls as of October 28,2008 (7 days to go)
Rasmussen – Obama 50/McCain 47
Zogby – Obama 49/McCain 45
Gallup – Obama 49/McCain 47
IBD – Obama 48/McCain 44
Battleground – Obama 49/McCain 46
Average of all Tracking polls - Obama 49.0/McCain 45.8 or an Obama lead of 3.2pts….
Polls as of November 3, 2008 (1 day to go)
Rasmussen – Obama 52/McCain 46
Zogby – Obama 51/McCain 44
Gallup – Obama 55/McCain 44
IBD – Obama 47/McCain 45
Battleground – Obama 50/McCain 44
Average of all Tracking polls - Obama 51.0/McCain 44.6 or an Obama lead of 6.4pts….
So, as you can see, Nobama has doubled his lead in the last week (and now he is avg. over 50%) in a sure sign that he has sufficiently duped the country that he is the answer and he is not a wolve in sheep’s clothing… I hate to say this, but now, nothing short of divine intervention is needed to avert an absolute shellacking!!!!
With that being said, the only factors that I can see that would invalidate the raw data and make a case that we can pull this out are as follows:
1. As I have mentioned to most of you this week, the normal rejection rate on polling is about 50%. However, pollsters are reporting this year a rejection rate of over 80%... This means, there are a lot of people that are not willing to be polled this year for whatever reason….. You can say they are closet McCain supporters, but ya just don’t know…
2. The fact that Barry is ahead in the National Polls can be misleading because he is way ahead in the lib states (i.e. NY, CALI, ILLINOIS) and McCain is ahead only slightly in his states…. So you can see a scenario where Obama wins the popular vote 52-48 or so and he loses the electoral vote by a sliver because McCain wins the battleground states by narrow 1-2pt margins….
3. Is there a significant Bradley effect where people are outright lying to the pollsters saying they are for Barry but they vote for McCain behind the curtain – There is probably a small percentage of these people – say 3-4%, but is it 7-8% - probably not……. Anyway, nobody really knows the amount of these people until the votes are in….
Anyway, as you can see, I am grasping for anything here that can point to a way that we can pull this out, but it is now a very long shot – I would say a 20-1 shot or thereabouts….
Sometimes, you just have to throw away the numbers and the analyses and just say, lets see what happens and hope for the best…….. While bracing for the worst…..
However, if he can somehow pull this off, it would be the greatest comeback story in history!!!! It would make Game 6 in ’86 look like a so-so comeback!!!
How sweet that would be!!!