Monday, October 22, 2012

2 Weeks out - Polling Update & Predictions

To my Conservative Friends:

Unlike 4 years ago when I was the one bringing you the sorry news that we needed a miracle to avoid the election of the biggest empty suit that has ever sat in the oval office (see the 2008 article here), I come bearing gifts and good news!!!

I have been saying for over a year now that Romney will beat the Messiah by 5 points (52-47) and carry a comfortable electoral majority in the range of 279-308.  In fact, this is the way I see the electoral college breaking down on election night:






Why do I predict this??  Well, I am a numbers guy and I analyze polls as much as Dick Morris.  I analyse their methodology, their party breakdown and everything in between.  If you remember at this time 4 years ago, this is the way it looked from a polling perspective with 2 weeks to go in 2008 and today:

October 21, 2008 - 2 weeks till 2008 Election:
 
Obama 49.9%
McCain 42.9%
Obama's Lead = 7.0%
 
Today - October 22, 2012 - 2 weeks till 2012 Election
 
Romney 47.4%
Obama 46.6%
Romney's Lead  .7%
 
Oh how times have changed!!!  The polls today are more precise, more detailed and the polling companies have really got this thing down to a science.  The two main polls that I have followed in the past and I continue to trust the most are the daily tracking polls - Rasmussen and Gallup.
 
As I have said numerous times in the past, polling companies that do daily tracking are more accurate and are better pollsters that the companies that do sporadic, one-off polls every week or so.
 
This is merely because if you do something everyday, you are going to be better at it than if you do it every few weeks.  So Rasmussen and Gallup are the ones to follow.  They have proven to be the most accurate and they are the ones to be trusted the most.  Case in point Rasmussen had it right on the money in 2008 predicting a 6 point Obama win (he won by 5.5) and Gallup had Obama winning by 10.  So Rasmussen was the most accurate (as they were in 2010) and Gallup had the winner as well...
 
As of today, here is how Rasmussen and Gallup see it shaking down:
 
As of October 22, 2012 (2 weeks till election):
 
Rasmussen - Romney leads by 2
Gallup - Romney leads by 7
 
So what has happened in the past 4 years that has really changed the game for this election.  It is a lot of factors, but the biggest ones are:
 
  • Romney is a drastically better candidate than McCain
  • Paul Ryan is a better, more experienced and smarter VP candidate than Sarah Palin.
  • Obama has lost a ton of support.  I think he has lost most of his support from white men &  married women who decided to give him a "chance" with the mindset of "Hope and Change" last time but have smartened up this time.
  • Let's face it, Obama has been an utter failure for the most important issue - The economy!!
    • 23 Million people still unemployed
    • 47 million on food stamps (up from 32 million in 2008)
    • Housing crisis still a mess
    • Gas prices have doubled in the past 4 years
    • Need I go on???
  • Obama's foreign policy is unraveling before our eyes - the strategy of "get them to like us" has proven to be a failure...
  • Romney has a plan and Obama is offering nothing more than stay the course as I drive us into the iceburg, hit reverse and back into it just in case I didn't rip the hull to shreds!
  • The country was historic by electing the first black President and overlooked his lack of knowledge and experience and decided to give him a shot - not again (fool me once...)...
So, my prediction for the past year remains.  I believe Romney has a lead of between 2 and 7 points and has all the momentum going his way. 
 
The country has had it with Obama.  They have had it with the class-warfare, the lying, the apologizing, the blaming anyone other than himself.  And most importantly, they have had it with the dismal results...  Romney had it right when he said to the guy in the second debate - "We don't have to settle for this!!!"   And we wont!!!
 
Romney will win comfortably and we can finally get an adult in the white house so we can start getting this budget under control, stimulate the private sector and get on track for a real recovery!!!
 
I for one can't wait for it!!!
 
Just my thoughts...
 
GOP Mike

6 comments:

  1. Boy oh boy do I hope you are right, Mike! First time here and enjoyed your writing style--very easy to read and comprehend.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you my friend - Been a little lax in updating, but I hope to be writing more frequently in the weks aheah!!!

      Keep the faith and know that everything in my being tells me that Obama must lose!!!

      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
  3. I really hope you are right. It is too close for comfort.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Legislation continues to be introduced so as to help you freeze rates, but comparing different lenders will
    net you potentially significant savings within the long
    run http://adi.gd/ the
    fixed part depends around the amount of money because
    of it and you'll find scales and the variables usually are paid a percentage of equity over these loans from banks.

    ReplyDelete