Monday, November 5, 2012

Polling Update - 1 Day to go and GOP Mike's Final Prediction!

To my Conservative Friends:

Serenity now!!!!

I know all of you are nervous.  I know all of you are anxious.  I was that way for all the elections that I have been closely following as an armchair political pundit from the 2000, 2002, 2004 (especially), 2006, 2008 and the mid-terms in 2010.

And this 2012 election is, in my view, the most vitally important election in my lifetime.  And yet, I am the most calm and reserved about this election than I have ever been before a big election day.

The reason??  As I told my wife yesterday, everything in my bones tells me this President is the most corrosive, dangerous President that has ever occupied the oval office in the history of our republic.  And everything tells me that his campaign is so bankrupt and corrupt that he can not win. 

Romney's campaign is about what is right about this country and what has made us great (self responsibility, exceptionalism, limited government).  And Obama's campaign is everything that is wrong about this country, specifically class warfare, jealousy, resentment, handouts and more of the same policies that have this country on the brink of collapse.

But Mike - What do the polls say??  Ok, Ok...  With one day to go, here are the numbers for the only reliable sources I watch closely which are the daily tracking polls:

As of Today - November 5, 2012 (1 day till election):
Rasmussen: Romney 49%/Obama 48%
Gallup: Romney 51%/Obama 46%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 45%/Romney 44%
Battleground: Romney 48%/Obama 48%
 
Averages:  Romney 48.0%/Obama 46.8%  -  Romney leads by 1.2%
 
Just as a point of reference, with one day to go in 2008, Obama lead McCain by 6.4% and was at 51% average in the polls.  Ohh how times have changed!!!
 
As I have said many times, if an incumbent is averaging below 50%, that is not a good sign as app. 70% of the undecideds will go for the challenger.  So, with that assumption, Romney will carry the popular vote by a 3.4 points or 51.7% to 48.3%.  That would equate to a popular vote victory of app. 4.4 million votes.
 
But Mike, all the 'in the bag for Obama" media is claiming that Obama is still up in the swing states and could still win the election while losing the popular vote.  I say to those "journalists" that you are really deluding yourself.  Once the poplar vote margin exceeds a 1.5 to 2 point spread, it is virtually statistically impossible for "thread the needle" and win the electoral college while losing the popular vote by more than a point or two. 
 
In my view, based on my objective analysis of the numbers, Romney will carry a large majority of the undecideds and win by more than 3 points and the electoral college will all fall into place.  Romney will carry all of the McCain states plus the following states that we will switch blue to red - FLA, NC, VA, either OH or PA, WI, IA, CO and NH for a total of 295-297 electoral votes.
 
And it could be better!!!  I see Romney's upside to be a 6-7 point poplar vote (53-47) and an electoral total of 315 to Obama's 223.  A real ass-kicking!!!.  This would be an absolute repudiation of everything Barry stands for and a very welcome and inspiring historic event that would have the main stream media in an absolute tailspin trying to figure out what the hell just happened!!!
 
Now, I have further statistical evidence to support this analysis.  In 2008, Dems outnumbered Republicans by a 7 point margin due to the enthusiasm for Obama and the dim-bulbs.  He also won the independents by double digits.  This translated into a landslide of 7.4% (53.7% to 46.3%) and an electoral total of 365 electoral votes for Nobama.
 
Almost every single poll out there has Romney well ahead of the independents (some by 20 points or more!!!).  And does anyone think the dems will outnumber republicans this time around???
 
So, let's just assume that the turnout of Republicans and Dems are equal this time around (even though I think there will be a Rep+3-5 based on enthusiasm) and each man carries 95% of their party vote (although I think Romney will carry more dems than Obama carries Rep's) and Romney carries the Independents by a small margin of say 8%.  So, this admittedly conservative approach translates into this:
 
 
 
So even this analysis shows Romney will win comfortably.  If we are to assume, Romney carries more dems than Obama carries Republicans and Romney carries app 12% of the indies, then you can see why I think it will be a larger margin of victory for Romney.  That would translate into a 6% (7.8 million votes) margin for Romney.
 
So bottom line, I don't buy the polls.  Their methodology is flawed and skewed towards showing the Messiah's polling as better than it actually is. 
 
Just today, CNN came out with a poll that showed the 2 men tied at 48%.  On it's surface, all the casual observers (and the media) say "yeah, makes sense, I have heard on CNN the race is dead even".  And then move along with their day plunging their face back into their IPads and smartphones to download the latest brain-numbing app. 
 
The problem with this poll, they have a dem+11 breakout for turnout!!!  Does ANYONE with a half of brain believe their will be 11% more enthusiasm for Obama voters than Romney voters tomorrow??  Only if you are the most partisan political lib-hack this side of the Mississippi!!! 
 
The other problem with this poll for CNN is that is showed Romney winning independents by 22%!!!  So ya see, to get the desired outcome they desired, a tie, they had to skew the turnout assumption to show a tie for their guy...
 
So, in conclusion, I have analyzed this race from an analytical, poll/number crunching perspective.  I have analyzed it from an issue and economic bent and I have analyzed it from an anecdotal method by talking to liberals, business owners, friends and families to get a sense of what is going to happen tomorrow.  But most of all, I follow my gut.  And my gut tells me that this President should lose.  This President deserves to lose.  This President MUST lose tomorrow so we can start to heal this economy, heal the division that the President has created by pitting class vs. class, group vs. group, Americans vs. Americans.
 
Mitt Romney is not the perfect candidate.  He will not heal the planet nor part the oceans.  He's a practical, problem solver who loves this country and is supremely qualified to get the economy working again.
 
He will not divide us, he will not promise one group goodies from another group.  He will be the President of ALL Americans and restore our faith in this great country.
 
So, hopefully, at around 10:55pm tomorrow night, I will listen to Bret Baier utter the words, "Fox News can now project that Mitt Romney has been elected the 45th President of the United States of America."
 
Trust me, we all need to hear that!!!
 
Just my thoughts...
 
GOP Mike
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 
 

3 comments:

  1. I called 51.5 to 47.5 with 1 % to the tin foil voters of America. I agree with your analysis completely in terms of how you weighted and used LOGIC to get your numbers. I Have 295 without PA (been romanced with PA so many times, just scared to count that) have him picking up FL, NC, VA, OH, WI, CO, NH, IA. Still thing NV, MN and MI while close will go to Obama (although thinking MI could really be the pleasant surprise).
    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bmEP

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  2. Hey Mike - Romney 338, 348 w/MN.

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  3. Former dim bulb here - I voted early, for Romney, as did my 3 adult children. I had switched from Dem to Ind a few months ago, but the kids changed when voting. As I understand it, those votes will be imagined as Dem, since they were Dem last time voting. I don't think I'm alone in my disappointment in Obama (and fear of his overt media backers) But not all early voting Dems are voting the way they might imagine. And we, of course, have never been called for a poll.

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